The origins of futurology
The term "futurology" was coined in the mid-1940s by German professor Osip Flechtheim, and as a scientific discipline it emerged by the 1960s, thanks to the efforts of Herman Kahn of the RAND Corporation and a number of other scientists. However, people were interested in the future long before that, and the first predictions that have survived to this day were made back in ancient times.
In Antiquity (8th century BC - V AD) and in modern times (XVII-XIX centuries), the main genre of “futurology” was utopias in the spirit of Plato’s “Republic” or Thomas More’s “Utopia”. They represented projects of ideal societies, rather detached from reality and not tied to a specific place or time. Utopias did not show the way to achieve the desired result. It seemed to their authors that it was enough to describe the ideal future for it to create itself according to this description.
In the interval between Antiquity and Modern times, people wrote about the future within the Christian tradition - in the genre of prophecies and revelations that were dystopian in nature and often foreshadowed the end of the world. A striking example of prophecies is the predictions of Nostradamus, the main theme of which is the political future of Europe, up to the beginning of the astrological era of Saturn (2242), and revelations - the Apocalypse - the second title of the last book of the New Testament, “The Revelation of John the Theologian,” which, among other things, describes numerous cataclysms, which will occur before the second coming of Christ. Therefore, “apocalypse” is often used as a synonym for the end of the world or a catastrophe on a planetary scale.
However, experience gradually accumulated in the failure to implement the stated
disasters. Transcendental prediction of the future through revelation gives such amorphous predictions that they can be tied to any event, but cannot be turned into a specific forecast.
Thus, the method of revelation was found to be ineffective in foreseeing the future. However, like utopias, it still has its supporters. Usually the idea of critical analysis of sources, as well as other important components of the scientific method, is alien to them, while they are characterized by higher suggestibility and faith in authority.
The history of futurology
The origin of futurology is associated with the emergence of the idea of state economic and political planning, primarily in the Soviet Union in the 1920s.
The emergence of futurology as a separate discipline occurred after the Second World War, when the Soviet Union, European countries and the newly independent countries of Africa and Asia began large-scale projects for economic restoration and development. To do this, they needed methods for studying the future, setting social goals, and economic and scientific planning. In the United States, futurology arose from the successful application of practical methods and tools of systems analysis and planning in the army during the war. To this day, futurologists in the United States are less inclined to make broad predictions related to the future of all humanity and the planet.
In the late 1960s, a critical mass of futurists formed around the world and an international dialogue began about the long-term goals of humanity. In 1972, the Club of Rome's report "The Limits to Growth" came to public attention, warning of the consequences of population growth, increased resource use and economic growth. International organizations of futurists were created - the World Futures Studies Federation and the World Future Society.
Futurology began with forecasting, an attempt to predict, anticipate the future, identifying trends and extrapolating them, or using statistical methods. But major energy futurological forecasts made using similar methods failed to predict the 1973 oil crisis.
Because of this serious failure, futurists moved from forecasting to creating scenarios that take into account, as they say, “multivariate futures,” and also began to take into account not only technological aspects, but also, for example, broader information about markets. The expansion of the scope of application of foresight methods (in areas such as education, medicine, urbanization, demography, law enforcement) has led to the need to take into account social aspects, for example, the impact of technology on society.
Of course, not all authors set out to imagine the possible future of humanity. But if we consider the authors of “hard SF”, such as Jules Verne, H.G. Wells, Olaf Stapledon, Alexander Belyaev, Genrikh Altov (Altshuller), Stanislav Lem, etc., then the number of new ideas and the number of fulfilled predictions will be very high. In the 60s, Genrikh Altov (the creator of TRIZ and a science fiction writer himself) published the results of the predictions of science fiction writers: J. Verne: 108 forecasts, of which 10 were incorrect. G. Wells: out of 86 predictions, 77 turned out to be correct. A. Belyaev: only 3 errors out of 50 prognostic fantasies.
Science fiction writers, knowing about trends, foresee precisely qualitative leaps in development and therefore more often than not futurologists are right.
Future trends.
The term “futurology” was proposed by sociologist Ossip K. Flechtheim in 1943, in a letter to Aldous Huxley, who enthusiastically accepted and coined it.
All philosophers, prophets and religious thinkers since ancient times have tried to predict the future: Plato, Aristotle, biblical prophets, Isaiah, John the Theologian, Nostradamus, etc.
The first attempts at scientific forecasts date back to the end of the 19th century: “Germany in the year 2000” () by Georg Ehrmann, “Future war and its economic consequences” () by Ivan Stanislavovich Bliokh, “Sketch of the political and economic organization of the future society” () by Gustave de Molinari, "Anticipations" () by H. G. Wells. In the 1920s and 30s, John Haldane's book Daedalus, or Science and the Future () was influential.
Extrapolation is just one of many methods and techniques used in studying the future (such as scenarios, the Delphi method, brainstorming, morphology, and others). Futurology also involves viewing such issues as normative or desirable futures, but its real contribution is the combination of extrapolation methods and normative inquiry to explore the best strategies.
Futurologist uses inspiration and exploration in varying proportions. This term excludes those who predict the future by supernatural means, as well as those who predict the near future or easily predictable scenarios. (For example, economists who predict changes in interest rates over the next business cycle are not futurists, but those who predict the relative wealth of nations a generation from now are.)
Some authors have been recognized as futurologists. They researched trends (especially technological trends) and wrote books about their observations, conclusions, and predictions. At first, they followed the following order: they published their conclusions, and then began research for a new book. More recently, they have started consulting groups or made money from public speaking. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and his ex-wife Patricia Aburdine are three prime examples of this class. Many business gurus also present themselves as futurists.
Futurologists have a number of similarities with science fiction authors, and some writers are perceived as futurologists or even write futurological articles (e.g. Arthur C. Clarke, Stanislaw Lem). Other writers often reject this label. For example, in the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula Le Guin wrote that prophecy is the job of prophets, clairvoyants and futurologists, but not writers: “the job of a writer is to lie.”
Some attempts have been made in the field of cosmological futurology to predict the distant future of the entire universe, usually predicting its heat death or "great collapse".
Futurology, although sometimes based on science, cannot follow the scientific method, since it cannot be verified by any methods other than expecting the future. However, futurologists can (and do) use many scientific methods.
Futurists have a very mixed reputation and history of success. For obvious reasons, they often extrapolate current technological and social trends and believe that they will develop at the same pace in the future, but technological progress in reality has its own paths and rates of development. For example, many futurists in the 1950s believed that space tourism would be a widespread phenomenon today, but ignored the capabilities of ubiquitous cheap computers. On the other hand, many of the forecasts were accurate.
Famous futurists
Synonyms:See what “Futurologist” is in other dictionaries:
Futurologist... Spelling dictionary-reference book
Forecaster Dictionary of Russian synonyms. futurologist noun, number of synonyms: 1 forecaster (3) ASIS Dictionary of Synonyms. V.N. Trishin... Synonym dictionary
FUTUROLOGIST, huh, husband. Sociologist involved in futurology. Ozhegov's explanatory dictionary. S.I. Ozhegov, N.Yu. Shvedova. 1949 1992 … Ozhegov's Explanatory Dictionary
futurologist- a, part Fakhіvets iz futurology. || Lyudina, yaka zdatna peredbachati maybutne, yogo risi...
M. Specialist in the field of futurology. Ephraim's explanatory dictionary. T. F. Efremova. 2000... Modern explanatory dictionary of the Russian language by Efremova
futurologist- futurologist, and... Russian spelling dictionary
futurologist- (2 m); pl. futuro/logs, R. futuro/logs... Spelling dictionary of the Russian language
futurologist- Futurology belgeche... Tatar telen anlatmaly suzlege
futurology- ї, g. Galus of scientific research that explores the prospects of social processes; scientific forecast of the future... Ukrainian Tlumach Dictionary
futurology- [futurolo/g ія] йі, op. yeah... Spelling dictionary of Ukrainian language
Books
- Transcend. Nine Steps to Eternal Life, Raymond Kurzweil, Terry Grossman. About the book A scientifically proven program that will allow you to live long enough to live forever. Renowned futurologist Ray Kurzweil and M.D. Terry Grossman studied thousands of...
who is a futurologist?
- In Russian it sounds like “future scientist.” The same as astrology, palmistry, fortune telling with Tarot cards, etc. More scientific surroundings, statistics, etc. The percentage of predictions that are justified is less than that of Wanda and Nostradamus. The science? It has all its inherent attributes, but isn’t this the main thing for a true futurist who can look confidently into his future?
- Professional futurologists are people who make money by predicting the future. This is a serious profession, especially in demand in our time.
Predicting the future is actually an interesting activity. Thinking about the fate of the world, trying to understand in which direction the development of humanity is moving, you can fully demonstrate the creative abilities and talent of a seer, especially since no one limits your imagination. These days, many people are doing this professionally, writes Wired.
According to the Association of Professional Futurologists, founded three years ago, forecasts of the future are becoming increasingly popular as the pace of scientific and technological progress accelerates. Now some commercial companies and government agencies not only turn to the services of futurologists, but often even have them on their own staff. In some places there are entire departments dedicated to predicting the future. It is known that such departments exist in British Telecom and IBM, as well as in the CIA. Many companies hire futurists as consultants.
Since no professional standards have yet been established in this area, now anyone can call themselves a futurologist. Forecasts, although made on the basis of real statistical and demographic data, are based on their subjective interpretation. In this regard, it is difficult to judge the competence of a specialist because the quality of his work can only be verified by time. Therefore, many true professionals in their field prefer to be called consultants so as not to confuse the client. But this does not change the essence of the work. Their job is to predict the future.
In addition to the Association of Professional Futurologists, other professional organizations are actively being educated. The World Futurology Society, the World Federation for Future Studies and the World Future Council have already begun their activities.
However, many futurists are shy about talking about their work openly, and for good reason. The worst thing is to get into trouble. Make an unfounded forecast, which later will not come true, and expose yourself to everyone's ridicule. Here is a selection of the most famous predictions, very funny from the standpoint of today: Computers of the future may weigh no more than one and a half tons (Popular Mechanics magazine, 1949), There is no reason why anyone would want to have a computer at home (Ken Olson, founder of DEC, 1977). The job of a professional futurologist is to prevent such lapses. He does not make loud statements, and usually makes forecasts exclusively for the client.
Now there is clearly a need for formal recognition of the profession of futurologist. A certification process must be approved, which may include an exam and training courses. These issues are just beginning to be discussed, and in any case the process of certification of futurologists will not begin until 2009. The consultants themselves will be happy, because after formal recognition they will be taken more seriously.
The situation with the training of future futurologists is still bad. Similar programs are available only in two lesser-known educational institutions in America: a course on alternative futures at the University of Hawaii and a course on futures studies at the University of Houston. In both specialties you can obtain a master's degree.
- A futurist uses inspiration and exploration in varying proportions.
This is science and a hobby at the same time!!
- You can see it here
- a person, a scientist who studies the future: forecasts and prospects, development of strategies, etc., etc.
- Futurology (from Latin Futurum future and Greek Logos doctrine) is the science of predicting the future, including through extrapolation of existing technological, economic or social trends or attempts to predict future trends.
Extrapolation is just one of many methods and techniques used in studying the future (such as scenarios, the Delphi method, brainstorming, morphology and others). Futurology also includes the consideration of such issues as normative or desirable futures, but its real contribution is the combination of extrapolation methods and normative research to explore the best strategies.
A futurist uses inspiration and exploration in varying proportions. This term excludes those who predict the future by supernatural means, as well as those who predict the near future or easily predictable scenarios. (For example, economists who predict changes in interest rates over the next business cycle are not futurists, but those who predict the relative wealth of nations a generation from now are.)
Some authors have been recognized as futurologists. They researched trends (especially technological trends) and wrote books about their observations, conclusions, and predictions. At first, they followed the following order: they published their conclusions, and then began research for a new book. More recently, they have started consulting groups or made money from public speaking. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and his ex-wife Patricia Aburdine are three prime examples of this class. Many business gurus also present themselves as futurists.
Futurologists have a number of similarities with science fiction authors, and some writers are perceived as futurologists or even write futurological articles (for example, Arthur C. Clarke, Stanislaw Lem). Other writers often reject this label. For example, in the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula Le Guin wrote that prediction is the job of prophets, clairvoyants and futurists, not writers: it is the job of the writer to lie.
Some attempts have been made in the field of cosmological futurology to predict the distant future of the entire universe, usually predicting heat death or a great collapse.
Andrey Fursov
From the speech of a permanent member of the Izborsk Club, historian Andrei Fursov at the eighth meeting of the intellectual club “Free Thought”.
There are many contradictions in the modern world, and one of them is that social injustice is growing rapidly, and there is practically no reaction to it from the object of this injustice: it is zero. For example, over the last decade in the UK, the rich have become richer by 67%, and the poor have become poorer by 54%. Moreover, many books are being published in England that describe the social war waged by the upper classes against the lower classes.
This war is primarily of an economic nature - just look at the latest book Breadline Britain about how the bulk of British workers and a significant part of the middle class are falling back to a level called “breadline” - the level of bread.
However, this war is also of an ideological, psychohistorical nature, which is manifested in the consistent demonization of the lower classes.
And yet, there is no noticeable reaction, no answer to this. This suggests that the social system functions somehow differently than Marxists and leftists in general were accustomed to seeing in their time.
Unfortunately, we stopped studying capitalism in the mid-50s; we began to rewrite first the communists, then the socialists, then the left liberals, then we came to the neoliberal punks like Hayek and Popper, who were guided by the people who in the 90s ideologically formalized the plunder of Russia.
Meanwhile, at the turn of the 60-70s, a very important change occurred in the West: the social base of the left movement began to disappear. This was caused by serious class changes in Western society, generated, in turn, by new stages of technical and economic development. Finally, the neoliberal revolution—or rather the counterrevolution—that came with Thatcher and Reagan and which appears to have ended in the early years of the 21st century has seriously undermined the base of the left.
Today we have already talked about the lack of design of modern society. But what does lack of design mean? This means the exhaustion of historical potential, including the exhaustion of the dichotomy of left and right.
Sometimes, watching disputes between left and right (and even our statists and liberals), I remember Kramskoy’s painting “The Dispute of Nikita Pustosvyat with the Church Hierarchs,” which hangs in the Tretyakov Gallery. The historical plot is connected with the fact that after Nikon’s supporters were removed from power, the Old Believers began to hope that they would be returned. A public debate was arranged, as a result of which the Old Believers expected to take the place of the Nikonians, and Queen Sophia assumed the victory of the hierarchs over the Old Believers. 
During the debate, Nikita Pustosvyat defeated the hierarchs, and his head was cut off - and Kramskoy’s painting conveys the historical mood very well. Here stands Nikita Pustosvyat, here are the hierarchs, here is Sophia, they are arguing - and they do not feel that their disputes are irrelevant, that soon a boy with a cat's mustache will come, disperse them all, and a completely new era with completely new contradictions will begin.
Today we have already talked about futuro-archaism, the road of which was paved with liberalism. But liberalism itself, apparently, will be one of the first victims of this futuroarchaism.
When they talk about it “new Middle Ages”, “new dark ages” is a metaphor, because in fact this futuro-archaic is developing on a very powerful high-tech basis, and this is its feature that we have not yet realized.
The society emerging now is not just a medieval society, but something unprecedented in history, and to analyze it you need a class approach, although it is now developing according to the logic of the decomposition of class society.
When we talk about a strategy for the future, this strategy seems to be directed against capitalism, but the fact is that the top of the modern capitalist world is dismantling the capitalist system with its own hands. And in this regard, the dismantlers find themselves in the same company with the top of the capitalist system they are destroying.
Making a strategy when the system is collapsing is very difficult, and I don't have an answer to the question of what that strategy will be. But it seems quite obvious to me that she will not be left-wing.
http://www.dynacon.ru/content/articles/5141/
Tags: Andrey Fursov, future, society, social structure, social classes
Futurology
Futurology is the science of predicting the future. People who predict the future by supernatural means, and those who guess obvious developments of events or the near future, do not belong to them. That is, the healer Aunt Masha and the player on the currency exchange estimating changes in the dollar exchange rate are not futurologists.
Futurology studies the goals and objectives of the development of modern society, analyzes possible problems and difficulties. Based on today's social, economic and technological discoveries, scientists are trying to predict the course of civilization. Futurologists say that their science is necessary for building the desired future, and not for meekly and passively waiting for it
“In their work, futurologists use several methods that can be divided into four groups. The first involves identifying general opinion through surveys. The survey is conducted among scientists and people directly involved in the forecasted industry. The second group includes all kinds of analyses, that is, identifying trends, comparing them, considering successes and failures in economic, social or other spheres. Future scenarios and role-play simulations that demonstrate projected futures are also common.”
The most accurate method of forecasting today is considered to be the so-called “technological foresight”, developed by Japanese scientists and now promoted by the UNIDO organization. Its difference from previous methods is that technological foresight combines several analysis options at the following stages (http://www.futura.ru/):
1. Information is collected about the state of affairs in a given country (industry), including analysis of IT development, economic situation, social tension. The information is compiled and passed on to scientists and experts.
2. Scientists compare various development factors, analyze the information, and then make their predictions.
3. Based on forecasts, a program of action in individual areas is drawn up, and recommendations are developed.
Of course, all the forecasts of futurologists cannot come true - scientists are not gods.
Here are some of the most interesting predictions:
— 2007 — scientists will learn to use artificial blood.
- 2008 - household appliances will be more like home robots, completely taking over the human care of the house.
— 2009 — AIDS vaccines will appear.
- 2010 - the first human cloning occurs.
— 2012 — ozone holes in the atmosphere will be artificially eliminated.
— 2014 — cities on the water will appear.
— 2015 — mass production of quantum and biocomputers will begin.
- 2017 - an artificial eye and brain will be created.
- 2019 - anesthetic drugs will be invented that relieve any pain.
— 2020 — artificial intelligence of robotics will reach the level of human intelligence. Artificial beings will develop and improve much faster than humans.
- 2030 - the first human landing on Mars will take place.
Whether these predictions come true or not, we will find out in the next 25 years.
>News from political parties
20:16 06/15/2009 | All news from the “Communist Party of the Russian Federation” section
American futurist George Friedman on the future of Russia
American futurist George Friedman answered questions from the editor of the Moscow right-wing liberal magazine The New Times, Evgenia Albats. We publish the full text of the interview.
Over the next 100 years, you predict a large-scale crisis in China, the loss of influence of the European Union, the end of the war between Islamic fundamentalists and the United States, and the beginning of the Cold War between Russia and America. Is there anything bright waiting for our children?
It depends where. Mexico will become a serious world power. The United States will begin counting down its new golden age from the middle of the century; nuclear war will most likely be avoided; regional wars will become shorter and less bloody.
Will the war between Russia and the USA only be cold?
I think yes. Russia is trying to assert influence in the territory of the former Soviet Union, and the United States will try to prevent these plans by involving NATO countries. Russia and the United States are taking measures to avoid a Cold War, but I think they will not succeed.
Now everyone is preoccupied with the economic crisis and its consequences. Do you think the world is sliding into another Great Depression?
I don't think the crisis will reach such proportions. Every time there is a global recession in the economy or a recession in the United States, everyone immediately remembers the Great Depression. The current world crisis is very serious, but it is no worse than the crisis in the Third World countries in 1981-1982. Then, in third world countries, enterprises, service systems and others declared bankruptcy and were unable to pay off their debts. The United States organized a coalition that helped refinance its debts - what became known in history as the Brady Bond.** In the early 1980s, dollar-denominated bonds, named after US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, became widespread in Latin America. In 1982, US unemployment was 11%, inflation exceeded 10%, and mortgage interest rates were 17–19%. In many ways, the 1982 crisis was more severe than the current one. But people tend to become hysterical when the situation changes dramatically. It is obvious: in some countries the situation is much worse than in others. For example, in Russia, which is particularly suffering from falling energy prices. From a political point of view, this crisis plays into the hands of Putin's circle, because it will help him renationalize a significant sector of the Russian economy and will contribute to the strengthening of state power.
Russian paradox
In the USSR, the state controlled everything and everyone, had enormous power, but when oil prices plummeted in the mid-80s, the Soviet Union ceased to exist.
One paradox associated with Russia is that the state of its economy and its geopolitical power are not necessarily related to each other. Throughout the 70 years of the existence of the Soviet Union, its economy was not very good: sometimes it was in terrible condition, sometimes just bad, but the USSR played a colossal role in the world. Between 1945 and 1990, the economic situation was close to disaster, but the nation itself was powerful. And in the current crisis, Russia is returning to its usual state. On the one hand, the country has a poorly functioning economy, and on the other, its strength is growing. This was the case under Stalin, under Khrushchev and Brezhnev, and now Putin is trying to return it to the same state. If I were Putin, I would play on the macroeconomic advantages of integration with the West, but he is going his own way.
In Moscow, many will disagree with you: the budget deficit could reach 30%, reserves will run out by the end of 2009, unemployment is projected at 10 million people, the collapse of the most important industries, a social explosion and, as a consequence, the collapse of the regime...
Don't think. For Russia, a different model for solving economic problems is traditional: the authorities call on law enforcement agencies and instruct them to control people. The most extreme example is Stalin in the 20s, when there was a possibility of the collapse of the state. Russia will continue to follow this path: note that after the collapse of the USSR, the only service that continued to function was the security agencies. And Putin himself left these bodies, and they will take steps that will help stabilize the economic situation through non-economic influences. If Yeltsin were in power now, I would answer that Russia will collapse, but Putin will choose a different course.
And what will this course be - dictatorship?
Yes, the regime will become more repressive. If Moscow decides that there is a threat of the collapse of the regime, then the authorities, Putin, will resort to the levers of bureaucratic control. A regime that relies on state security agencies will survive.
Didn't survive in 1991.
In 1991, he relied on party bureaucrats and was afraid of the security officers.
The KGB was, is and will be
But it is impossible to compare the KGB of that time and the current one. Now the structure is decomposed, it is a conglomerate of various business entities professing dual loyalty: both to the authorities and to external sponsors.
Therefore, the state decided to enrich the KGB officers in order to prepare people in the authorities for the worsening economic situation. It is true that the security agencies in Russia are involved not only in government affairs, but also in business, but they remain loyal to the authorities because they predict that if business collapses, they will remain in government power.
Today in Russia there is a class of quite wealthy people who may not be happy with a tougher regime.
And what? Putin will call them to him and say: return the money. He should not be underestimated. He inspires the same fear as the Tsar or Stalin once did. I think you have to make assumptions about how people will behave, given how aggressive Putin can be. Each country has its own model of leadership behavior, one entails another. Russia also has its own model of behavior. All the time that Putin has been in power, he has been moving in a certain direction, he is moving carefully, but purposefully. Putin is a very typical Russian ruler, which distinguishes him from Gorbachev and Yeltsin. He is a security officer.
And what will we get: a corporate state like the one in Italy - Mussolini, or worse?
This will be the Russian version. In Tsarist times there was private property, but ministers controlled most economic activity, and it was very difficult for foreigners to understand the line between state and private property. Under Stalin there was a model where all property belonged to the state. In Russia, the distinction between private property and the state has never been as clear as, for example, in the USA and Great Britain.
The period of the 90s was completely atypical for Russia, so it ended quickly. I also think that it would be a mistake for Russians to turn to Italian or German models, because you have a lot of your own historical models. If you look into your past, you will see: what is happening in Russia now is not new.
That is, you think that globalization, free access to information - all this has had absolutely no impact and Russia is following a once and for all set trajectory?
Russia has always been involved in global integration. Russia has a railway system that was entirely financed by German and British money. The idea that globalization is something new is wrong; globalization has been around for a long time, ever since the Spaniards came to South America.
Based on this political and cultural determinism, China, for example, could never become a democratic country, and India, the largest democracy in the world, should not have become one...
The problem with China is that there are over a billion people living there, and 70% are in extreme poverty: how can you build a democratic society if the vast majority of the population earns $60 a month?
And in Russia, the well-being of the country depends on the prices of raw materials, the well-being of the regime depends on how it adapts to fluctuations in these prices in order to maintain the stability and security of the regime. Since the beginning of the 19th century, since the time of the Decembrists, Russia began to use state security agencies to maintain stability in society. In 1991, there was an option that everything would change, but Russia faced so many problems that it became unclear what to do next. Now Russia is following the traditional path; Russia always responds to social instability by involving state security agencies. And I don’t see what will force Putin to choose a different model.
You always say Putin, but we also have a president - Medvedev.
For now, the real power lies with Putin, and he represents the interests of the most powerful clan of modern Russia - the security officers.
Sam Huntington, in his book The Clash of Civilizations, predicted that Russia would sooner or later come into conflict with China. It’s as if you’re not considering this option at all?
Sam Huntington didn't look at the map, that's his problem. Look at the map. Siberia is a huge territory; the Chinese simply will not reach Central Russia. These two countries are on different planets; they simply cannot collide. Even in 1969 during a clash on the Ussuri River** The location of the border conflict on Damansky Island that unfolded in March 1969 between the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China. there were no such forces to develop and maintain this conflict.
If we go back to the 17th century, we will see that Muscovy, which was then a significant force, clashed with the Swedes, the Poles, and later the French. In short, my answer is this: when Russia becomes strong, it turns its gaze to its western borders, then, perhaps, to the south, to the Caucasus. But Europe is the first. Therefore, attention needs to be paid to Russian-German relations and Russian-Polish relations. The Russian-German relationship is brilliant because Russia supplies Germany with gas, but the key is Poland, which comes between you and the rest of Europe. There will be a tension zone here.
Is there anything good for Russia in your forecast?
Yes: women will love and be loved and will bear children. And the 21st century will not be radically different from either the 20th or the 19th century.
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FUTUROLOGY
FUTUROLOGY is a generalized name for concepts about the future of humanity; in a narrow sense, a field of scientific knowledge that covers the prospects of social processes and phenomena (in this sense, philosophy is synonymous with forecasting and forecasting). The term "F." was proposed by the German sociologist O. Flechtheim as the name of the “philosophy of the future”, an alternative to all previous social teachings. The term has not gained currency in this meaning. Since the early 1960s, philosophy has been understood as “the science of the future,” “the history of the future,” focused on understanding the prospects of all phenomena, and, above all, social ones. This understanding of f. was associated with the emergence during this period of special institutions that developed scientific, technical and socio-economic forecasts, and contained a claim to monopolize the predictive functions of existing scientific disciplines. However, the lack of F. understood in this way has its own subject and the limited understanding of the future by analogy with the past revealed the inconsistency of this approach, which by the end of the 1960s led to the practical emergence of such a meaning of the term “F”. out of use. It was replaced by the interpretation of f. as a complex of broadly understood social forecasting (a closely interconnected set of predictive functions of the social sciences and forecasting as the science of the laws of forecasting). Since the early 1970s, due to the ambiguity and uncertainty, the term “F” has been used. is being replaced by the term “futures research”. The concept of f. is primarily used as a figurative synonym for “future research.” In the 1960s, the predominant trend in Western France was the technocratic direction of France, which apologized scientific and technological progress as the main means of resolving social problems. This direction put forward the concept of “post-industrial society”, which interpreted the prospects for human development from a scientistic position (Bell, G. Kahn, Z. Brzezinski, etc.). Within the framework of the left-radical movement of F. (A. Uskou), scientific and technological progress was interpreted as a catalyst for the inevitable collapse of Western society. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the study of global problems came to the fore in France. The leading organization in this direction was the Club of Rome (A. Peccei, A. King, D. Meadows, E. Pestel, M. Mesarovic, E. Laszlo, J. Botkin, M. Elmanjra, M. Malitsa, B. Gavrylyshyn, G. Friedrich, A. Schaff, J. Forrester, J. Tinbergen, etc.), who initiated global computer modeling of the prospects for human development and the “limits of growth” of technological civilization. In general, within the framework of the last third of the 20th century. One can distinguish the directions of “ecological pessimism” (Forrester, Meadows, R. Heilbroner), which predicts the negative consequences of the current prospects for human development, and scientific and technological optimism (Toffler, Mesarovic, Laszlo, Pestel), which substantiates the possibility of realizing the positive potentials of technological development.
Psychologies: Is it possible to explain in clear and simple language what futurological thinking is?
Yes, sure. It's like a story, only about the future. At school, during history lessons, we were often told phrases like: “A people who do not remember their history are doomed to repeat mistakes.” But today we have the opportunity to predict the future a little more accurately than simply saying: “Nothing will change, everything will be as it was.” Thanks to the development of social sciences - sociology, political science, economics, psychology - and management sciences, today we better understand how society develops, we better understand the laws of this development.
Let me give you an example: it was found that most companies begin to die after 10-20 years of their existence. Any company in any country does not last long. Nowadays there are practically no organizations that have existed for a very long time. At the same time, cities, if we consider them also as a certain structure, organization, exist for a very long time, and at the same time do not perish.
But long-lived companies still exist. It turns out that this simply requires certain conditions?
There are only a few such companies. And there are practically no such ones that have existed for at least a hundred years. At the same time, for some reason, cities exist for a very long time - Rome, Paris, Berlin... Rome, after the fall of the Roman Empire, seemingly died: everyone left the city, the population was zero, there was no food supply... but then people still returned. The larger the cities, the more efficient they are. This means we can predict what will happen to parts of society. This is part of the basis on which futurology stands.
The first reason why futurology is important: we need to somehow navigate our future
For an ordinary person, futurology is also important because now there are no such precise landmarks as there were in the past, for example, two hundred years ago. Then every country had a dominant culture, a set of values and specially trained people to whom you could come and say: “My father, tell me, how should I live my life?” And he answered: “From Monday to Saturday you do this, on Sunday you do this. Here are all the instructions for you." This trend persisted for a very long time; it was still relevant in the middle of the 20th century.
But then what Friedrich Nietzsche called “the death of God” happened: in modern culture, especially in Western culture, this unambiguous landmark disappeared. Traditional institutions have been preserved, but a person has a huge choice: you can go for advice from an Orthodox priest, a Buddhist, you don’t have to go to anyone, you can read popular science articles on a topic of interest. There is no longer any certainty.
What should a modern person focus on?
This is the first reason why futurology is important: we need to somehow navigate the future. Before, everything was clear: the same thing will happen to you as happened to your father, grandfather, great-grandfather. Everyone was a blacksmith, and you will be a blacksmith. And your last name is also Kuznetsov. But today we understand that everything is changing, and not always for the better.
To develop such an understanding, we need tools, and it is advisable that we master them at school. This process has already begun: there are futurological projects and congresses in schools. In Kazan, for example, the University of Talents is engaged in the education, training, and coordination of gifted children. During the two-day session, specialists together with the children come up with what they would like to do in life. Moreover, there are also very young children from elementary school. At this age, the child begins to form an image of what he wants to do in the future.
Goals should be set not for a month or a year, as most people do, but for 10, 20, 30 years in advance
In this regard, classical futurology fulfills the task: children know about robots, flights to Mars, even about cryonics. I gave a lecture in Yekaterinburg about the professions of the future, and after the lecture the children had to choose what they wanted to do. 80% chose professions in one way or another related to immortality and revival. And that's okay. Previously, we could only offer children the explanation “Your dog is now in heaven with your great-grandmother,” but now there are alternative options that are more useful.
What other reasons make this science important?
The second reason can be formulated as follows: the ability to predict life. Nowadays the anti-aging field is very actively developing, scientists are working on life extension. If you know that you can live a hundred years, how will you use this information? What if you have a thousand years?
It doesn’t matter what social level a person is on, how much money or power he has. You need to decide what to do next, how to plan your life and activities. We can change our profession at any point in our lives, as long as we are not near death. We can comprehend the world that surrounds us, define a goal, and understand what skills and resources are missing to achieve it. In this case, goals should be set not for a month or a year, as most people do, but for 10, 20, 30 years in advance. And tell yourself: “I want to do this and I will try until I succeed.”
Are there special techniques with which a person can predict success or failure in endeavors?
Certainly. The first point: you need to develop a serious approach to work. This does not mean that you need to choose a fashionable or prestigious profession. You need to understand what your career path will allow you to achieve in twenty years. Nowadays people very rarely choose this approach. A similar level of conscious and responsible approach can be observed, for example, in astronauts who study for years, must constantly monitor their physical fitness and health, undergo selection programs, etc. But this approach could be adopted by everyone, not just astronauts.
Any person who wants to engage in the technologies of the future can go to study - on their own or through correspondence courses, without even having to quit their job. And after some time - for example, after three years - you can already choose a new profession and begin to develop in it.
The second point: you need to think about global forecasting, and here it is quite difficult to build the future on your own - you need to have a lot of information, which is not exactly hidden, but not particularly disseminated. This is information about how society is governed, in which direction it is moving, how complex systems generally work, for example, cities - what we talked about at the very beginning. It has to be collected bit by bit, and much still depends on how the society in which a person lives relates to this or that idea.
For example, in most countries people have a very conservative idea of the life trajectory and its finitude. Please note: in almost all Hollywood films and cartoons, immortal characters are negative. Anyone who strives for immortality and prolongation of life is bad. This can be seen even in the example of Star Wars. Of course, there are films that contradict this idea, but in general it feels as if some secret censorship committee forbids talking about the fact that people can live long and still live well.
If we want to be responsible for our future, we need to take as much information about it as possible
When a person thinks about how to develop his career, where he wants to live and what to do, this is also part of futurology. It is important for everyone to understand whether we want to take responsibility for our future. You can, after all, not take it, but rely on it, for example, on pension funds; another question is whether it is worth hoping. You don't have to be an advanced analyst to make forecasts. If we want to be responsible for our future, we need to take as much information about it as possible. For some it is ten articles in scientific journals, for others it is a radio broadcast, for others it is one book on futurology.
It is important to identify reference points for yourself - to understand what result you want to achieve in 10, 20, 30 years. If there is such a plan, a person will rely on it. This does not mean that everything will work out on its own, but at least it will provide the context in which to act. Today we have access to almost any knowledge. You can develop yourself if you understand in which direction you want to move. You can learn to approach your future rationally.
Is this taught in your courses?
Yes, we, for example, have a short but intense course on applied rationality: we teach people to develop rational skills and apply them in both work and personal life. This helps to correctly assess what is happening and identify behavioral options. People who try to figure this out on their own usually come up with some popular methods of planning and time management, install an application on their phone, and check the boxes in it. But it doesn't work that simple. Several levels of planning and analysis are needed. And this is necessary and useful for any person.
You need at least a little independence and a desire to make informed decisions, and not rely on someone else’s advice
The classic and most interesting part in applied rationality is Bayes' theorem, the theorem of conditional probability. For example, a person receives a test result for some disease. But the result can be false positive and false negative. To calculate the probability of getting this or that result, you must first understand what the probability of such a disease is for a particular person. If, for example, this probability is 1 in 100,000, then the probability of a false positive result is much higher.
But most people don't think like that, they haven't been taught to. And they taught that homeopathy works and “it helped my neighbor, so it should do the same for me.” Without knowing how to calculate probabilities, a person suffers losses.
How difficult is it to master? Do you have to be a mathematician or a physicist, or is rational thinking accessible to everyone?
We have a course on applied rationality, which is designed for 3-4 lessons, one lesson per week. There are face-to-face groups, they are aimed at completely different people and are suitable for the “ordinary” person on the street. After completing the course, a person receives rational thinking skills and practical results. You need to be able to work with any task. But for this you need at least a little independence and a desire to make informed decisions, and not rely on someone else’s advice.
It turns out that this is a skill to ask yourself the right questions and look for the right information?
Yes. And based on this information, build a predictive model: “If I do this, then this will happen.” Then a person is taught to work with preferences - after all, there are judgments about the world, and there are preferences. You need to be able to check your judgments about the world and understand how they are connected. And preferences are the ability to model different options for the future in your head and understand what you like. For example, when a child graduates from school and does not know who he wants to be, this means that he does not know how to work with his preferences.
Many adults also don’t know how to work with preferences.
Yes, because they were not taught this. They don’t know what they want and use formulaic solutions: “I want a bigger salary, I want a vacation at sea, I want to buy this, I want to learn something.” But at the same time, the person does not understand what kind of life he would like to live in the next five years. Many people cannot dream about something because they do not understand how to work with a library of possible desires. And the best thing they can do is come across a list of “One Hundred Things You Must Do in Life” on some blog and try to fulfill all the points: skydive, go to Las Vegas, but this is not the wisest an approach. Our time resource is limited, which means that if we want to live meaningfully, we need to choose fifteen of these hundred points. And take your choice seriously.
Recent studies have shown that more than half of people believe that they are engaged in meaningless work. Clerks, officials, low-level managers who fulfill various bureaucratic requirements do not understand the existing alternative, do not understand what to do with the feeling of meaninglessness. They find themselves in a kind of trap. And to get out of it, you need to be able to ask yourself basic questions.
How can you learn to ask such basic questions?
The starting point can be a description of the past, present and future of our world. There must be some basic model that describes what seems most important and interesting to a person. Let’s say for some it’s nature. And this person begins to read a book about ecology, about the effect of pesticides and chemicals. He will read it and say: “I want to save our world from such problems.” For another person it will be a book about education and science, for a third it will be about space. But in any case there must be some kind of frame.
There are forecasts according to which many professions that were recently considered in demand will lose relevance in the future
And then a person begins to compare: he imagines the world in which he would like to live, understands what he likes and what he doesn’t. And then you can set practical goals; they identify issues and solutions. And these questions and solutions should arise in your head today. The same example is with space, into which many dream of flying. You can just dream about it, or you can figure out how the space industry as a whole is developing, what ways there are to someday end up on a spaceship. It will also matter what country a person lives in and where he works. Having outlined several points, a person will create a frame for himself and will be able to evaluate his success in moving towards the goal.
For me, for example, the most important and interesting issues are issues of immortality and strengthening of intelligence, as well as omnipotence, building a utopia, security, and singularity. But this is a fairly broad framework; it requires developed futurological skills.
And if you set a more “everyday” framework, for example, about raising children, education, career, what advice can you give to people who do not know about futurology?
In fact, these topics are interconnected. There are already forecasts according to which many professions that were recently considered in demand will lose relevance in the future. For example, a lawyer. Therefore, if parents are thinking about what to prepare their child for, they need to study the professions of the future. You can simply enter this phrase into a search engine, you can look at the Skolkovo Atlas of Professions.
Futurology implies a high level of desire to be responsible for one’s life, not only now, in the moment, but also in the future.
We need to understand that those professions to which we are accustomed will either no longer be relevant for our children, or the paths to these professions will be different. For example, agriculture is not going anywhere, but what needs to be studied in this area is different from what was studied 50 or 20 years ago.
Now there are a huge number of intensive training methods, which can begin almost from the age of 1-2 years. You need to know what technologies are available and how to use them. Simply giving your child a tablet or smartphone is a bad idea. It’s more interesting and productive to use some kind of devices with biofeedback and experiment with neural interfaces.
There used to be a popular idea that the baby in the womb should be allowed to listen to classical music. And now you can use direct magnetic stimulation of the brain, substances that during pregnancy have a positive effect on the future intelligence of the child - making it not just “normal”, but “above average”. You can and should read about this in open sources; this is not secret information.
Futurology implies a high level of desire to be responsible for one’s own life, not only now, in the moment, but also in the future. And this is what you can learn - to see yourself in the future, to understand what needs to be done for this future now. This is responsibility for yourself, your family and your life.
About the expert
Ideologist and one of the founders of the Russian transhumanist movement, futurist. More details on the website.
The answers were prepared by Kirill Ignatiev, coordinator of the project “Technical Progress and the Economy of the Future”, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Russian Investments group of companies, lecturer at RANEPA, member of the ASI expert council
Who is a futurist?
A futurologist analyzes trends of the present and predicts the future. Often different people are called futurologists: popularizers of science, trend watchers (business consultants), and visionaries. Some believe that they are different, others believe that the concepts are synonymous.
Visionaries have a creative rather than a scientific view of the future. These are strategists who sense trends, determine development vectors, isolate the main thing from the flow of information and convey it to the masses. Visionaries are often called Elon Musk, Jack Ma or Bill Gates. There are also science fiction writers, who once, one might say, began the increased interest in predicting the future. But this is still a separate creative area.
Futurology as a science was formed relatively recently, largely from philosophy and sociology. It now sets itself more precise goals than before and is based on technological, technical and engineering areas. This is a technique that has been developed over the years and focuses on studying the dynamics of key trends.
How to become a futurist?
Futurologists are now almost never taught anywhere, although some universities still introduce separate master’s and doctoral programs in predicting the future, as well as courses in analytics and strategic thinking as part of additional education. So, you can study to become a futurologist, for example, at the Free University of Berlin, the University of Hawaii at Manoa or the University of Houston. However, you can become a futurologist by obtaining a more familiar specialty - business administration, marketing, sociology, philosophy, anthropology are suitable. The combination of these disciplines with systems analysis and engineering competencies is even closer to futurology.
What skills does a futurist need?
There are no established professional standards, but practicing futurologists agree that it is necessary to read a lot, understand technological, technical and social world processes, track scientific discoveries, identify trends in business and politics, know languages, and also develop analytical and strategic thinking and be able to sometimes extrapolate existing statistical trends into the future.
What trends do futurologists study?
- The movement of technology from science to R&D (research and development) and business. In essence, this is the process of introducing into everyday practice inventions that have already been experimentally confirmed or close to it.
- Studying technologies already used in business, which tend to become cheaper. Such technologies are most promising for distribution in the future. An example is smartphones. They've come down so much in price that today's top-end phones are the same price as Motorola's top-end models from the 1990s. But at the same time, modern smartphones are completely different devices. The technology has become very complicated, devices have become thousands of times more accurate, but the price has remained the same.
- Study of the younger generation. This is a kind of test: if today the technology is mastered by children, then, most likely, tomorrow adults will master a similar solution. Plus, children will be the main players in the future, those who will live in it. Therefore, we need to carefully study everything that the younger generation lives with in order to draw conclusions about the upcoming changes.
- Studying trends in the field of communications and any creativity. These areas anticipate the future. Today, new horizons have been opened by social networks; tomorrow, technologies for accessing the vision of another person or online presence will do so. You can also find a lot of ideas about the future in art, science fiction literature and films.
- Studying everything that is happening in the leading industries, which can be called big-budget and which are shaping the future. For example, the automotive industry has long determined the development of industrial design, since a lot of money has been invested there. Space and the military industry shaped the future of information distribution and security, as well as the most sophisticated computer solutions and materials.
Is there a limit to predictions?
A forecast covering a period of no more than 9-10 years can be practically useful for business. The rest is closer to science. Forecasts beyond ten years are useful for science, as it storms distant horizons and potential opportunities that will be applied in practice. Science must plunge about a century into the future, otherwise unexpected inventions will not appear, new continents will not be discovered in the broad sense of the word.
Where should a futurologist go to work?
The idea of having a futurist on staff will soon be reconsidered. As a futurist, I believe that the very concept of company staff will soon become a thing of the past. Large corporations will increasingly rely on the free labor market and will attract more and more freelancers and self-employed people. Futurologists will primarily be among these workers. They will become consultants, hired for a certain period of time to develop recommendations.
People with a scientific and systematic approach will be in demand in the future in various professions. A vision of the future is needed for engineers, chemists, doctors, and designers. The model of today is as follows: to create a product of the future that will be interesting to the market, it is necessary to attract specialists from a variety of professions who have the competencies of a futurologist.
A futurologist can also engage in other activities and, as a scientist, philosopher or teacher, integrate his vision of the future into his work.